Your City's 'Crime Wave' Might Be a Political Illusion
There’s a headline I’ve seen a thousand times, and you probably have too. It goes something like this: “Our City Is In the Grip of a Terrifying Crime Wave.” Today, I saw it again, this time out of Victoria, Australia. An article in Crikey argues, using recent statistics, that this particular crime wave is very real, with theft and other property crimes surging.
The author makes a data-driven case. But whether this specific crime wave is statistically accurate or not almost misses the point. The narrative of a crime wave is one of the oldest, most reliable, and most cynical tools in the political and media playbook. And we should be deeply skeptical every single time it appears.
Fear is a Powerful Weapon
Let’s be clear: crime is real, and its victims are real. But the concept of a “crime wave” is often a carefully constructed illusion, designed to evoke fear. And fear is a powerful motivator. It makes people demand action, any action. It makes them willing to trade freedom for a perceived sense of security.
Who benefits from this fear? First, the politicians. A crime wave is the perfect distraction from other, more complex problems. Is the economy failing? Are housing costs spiraling out of control? Is your government embroiled in a corruption scandal? No time to worry about that, because there are criminals at your door! The solution is always simple and telegenic: more police, tougher laws, longer sentences. It projects an image of strength and control, regardless of whether it actually solves the underlying causes of crime.
Second, the media. Fear sells. Sensationalist headlines about crime generate clicks, views, and newspaper sales. A nuanced story about the socioeconomic factors that lead to crime doesn’t have the same punch as a shocking story about a local break-in. The media often amplifies the narrative, focusing on individual incidents while ignoring broader statistical trends that might paint a less alarming picture.
The Danger of a Narrative
The article I read today makes a point of using statistics to prove its case. But even data can be framed. Is crime up compared to last year’s historic lows during the pandemic? Or is it simply returning to a pre-pandemic baseline? Is “theft” rising because of organized crime, or because people are struggling to afford basic necessities and are shoplifting to survive? The overall number doesn’t tell the whole story.
The danger of the “crime wave” narrative is that it flattens all this nuance. It creates a single, terrifying enemy that can only be defeated with a bigger stick. It leads to reactionary policies that often do more harm than good, such as over-policing minority communities and bloating prison populations without addressing issues like poverty, mental health, and lack of opportunity.
So, the next time you see that familiar headline, I urge you to be critical. Ask yourself: Who is telling me this? Why are they telling me this now? And what are they trying to sell me? The answer is rarely as simple as “the truth.” More often than not, they’re selling fear.
